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Job postings have slowed since June, according to Indeed


July 14, 2020
By Talent Canada Staff/Indeed

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The total number of job postings in Canada is down 33 per cent year over year, according to July data crunched by job board Indeed.

Brendon Bernard, an economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab, called the rebound in the nation’s job market “gradual, but incomplete.”

The gap in new postings as of July 10 widened slightly to 23 per cent below 2019’s path, up from negative 21 per cent in the previous week and settling back in to where it was in the latter half of June.

“The slowdown in momentum is evident in most provinces,” he said. “Total postings are closer to their 2019 trends in areas like health care, software development, as well as beauty and wellness and construction – the latter two seeing strong rebounds since early May.”

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On the flipside, opportunities are weaker in areas of the economy hit hard by the crisis – such as food services and white collar sectors like banking and human resources, he said.

Overall, the shortfall in total postings has continued to narrow over the past two weeks, but a somewhat slower pace than in June.

Here’s a look at the data published by Bernard.

Canadian job postings recovering gradually

Narrowing of Canadian new job postings gap has stalled

The flatline in the new postings gap reflects softer momentum in most provinces. The trend in new postings since June 20 has been either steady or down compared to 2019 levels in all provinces except Alberta and Quebec. Overall, new postings are being added at rates closest to last year’s trend in New Brunswick, Saskatchewan, and Aberta.

New postings recovery stalls in most provinces

Hiring appetite doing better in some sectors

The recent slowdown in new posting trends notwithstanding, the overall rebound in total postings since early May does indicate that job opportunities are more plentiful than earlier in the crisis.

Some sectors where hiring appetite looks relatively strong, at least compared to the overall average, are those that didn’t experience sharp declines in March and April, despite seeing limited rebounds since. Included here are healthcare related areas like nursing, and personal care and home health, as well as software development. Meanwhile, strong rebounds in sectors like beauty and wellness (which include massage therapists and hairstylists), and construction have brought postings closer to their 2019 trends than elsewhere.

Sectors with relatively narrow job postings gaps are showing different degrees of momentum

A wide range sectors have job postings trends at a similar distance from their 2019 levels as the economy-wide average. These include customer service, driving (which includes truck drivers), management, as well as IT operations and helpdesk. While the former two have seen relatively large rebounds since early May, the latter two fell less than average earlier in the crisis.

Lastly, posting gaps are currently wider than the overall average in several sectors. Some are areas that have been hit harder by the pandemic like sports (which includes fitness instructors and coaches), as well as food preparation and service. Others are in more white-collar areas such as banking and finance (which include mortgage specialists, and risk managers), as well as human resources.

Methodology

To measure the trends in job postings, Indeed calculated the seven-day moving average of the number of job postings on Indeed Canada. It indexes each day’s seven-day moving average to the start of February (Feb 1, 2020 = 100 for 2020 data, and so on).

Indeed reports on how the trend in job postings this year differs from last year, in order to focus on the recent changes in labour market conditions due to COVID-19. For example: if job postings increased 30 per cent from Feb. 1, 2019, to April 10, 2019, but only 20 per cent from Feb. 1, 2020, to April 10, 2020, then the index would have risen from 100 to 130 in 2019 and 100 to 120 in 2020. The year-to-date trend in job postings would therefore be down 7.7% on April 10 (120 is 7.7% below 130) in 2020 relative to 2019.

For new postings, it calculates a similar metric but the underlying measure is the number of postings that have been on Indeed for seven days or less.

Information based on publicly available information on the Indeed Canada website (and other countries named in the post), limited to Canada, is not a projection of future events, and includes both paid and unpaid job solicitations.

Brendon Bernard is an Economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab, focusing on the Canadian labour market. His research interests include analyzing how detailed trends in the job market fit in with broader developments in the Canadian economy. Brendon was previously an economist with Department of Finance Canada, where he focused on analyzing Canadian financial sector policy and the U.S. economy. He holds a Master’s in Economics from the Vancouver School of Economics at University of British Columbia, as well as a Bachelor of Arts (Honours) from Queen’s University.